Week 1 trends
- the Super Bowl loser is 4-19-1 ATS in Week 1 since 2000. The 49ers play the Jets in San Francisco on Monday Night Football
- Division underdogs in Week 1 are 34-15-1 ATS since 2015. Typically there are 5-7 division games in Week 1 but this season’s lighter with only 3 division games: Raiders +3 at Chargers, Panthers +4 at Saints and the Colts +3 at home vs the Texans
- Super Bowl winners are 16-5 SU and 13-6-2 ATS in Week 1 since 2003. The Chiefs -2.5 host the Ravens on opening night Thursday September 5th and a rematch from the playoffs when the Chiefs were undervalued at +4 and won in Baltimore. Kansas City is 4-1 vs the Ravens since Pat Mahomes and Lamar Jackson got into the league
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- Jets +4 at 49ers MNF:
The 49ers will be without RG Jon Feliciano and the Jets front 7 and Quinnen Williams inside can get in the backfield and the Jets have a lot of talent on defense with or without Haason Reddick. The Jets offensive line is the best they’ve had in a long time with Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses and drafting Olu Fashanu in the 1st round. Breece Hall the last 2 years ran for 4.5 ypc and 5.8 ypc behind a bad offensive line and Zach Wilson at QB, now he gets a good Oline + Aaron Rodgers, Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams and Allen Lazard on the outside. Rodgers is 9-1 on MNF since 2012 (not counting last year and 2012 when he got hurt early in those games) – 23 TDs, 3 INTs and 293 ypg and has looked really good all camp. This is probably his last game ever in San Fran, the hometown team that passed up on him, and in 9 games vs the 49ers he has 20 TDs to 2 INTs and is 4-1 the last 5 vs them. The Super Bowl loser is 4-19-1 ATS in Week 1 since 2000 and Saleh knows the 49ers roster well. The 49ers haven’t seen anything on film from Rodgers with this offense so the Jets can catch the 49ers defense off guard at times. The total moved down from the 45.5 opener to 42.5 and points could be at a premium with two really good defenses and if it’s a lower scoring game the 4 points should be valuable.
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Lions -4 vs Rams – Sunday Night Football
The Rams just put starting corner Darious Williams on IR yesterday after McVay said he was expecting him ready for Week 1 and that’s when this line went from 3.5 to 4. Behind Darious Williams is Cobie Durant who was limited at practice this week with a hamstring injury and behind Durant are two undrafted rookies at corner after the Rams put 2 other corners on IR earlier in camp. The Rams drafted well in the front 7 but the Lions offensive line won’t lose their matchups very often and they have size on the Rams defensive line. The Rams are also playing in a new defense under a new defensive coordinator against an offense that’s been good for a few years now. Rams LT Alaric Jackson is suspended and their RT Rob Havenstein has been injured all camp and was limited this week at practice. The Rams Oline hasn’t played together yet and they have to face a really good Lions defensive line and deal with the crowd noise in the Lions first home game since their playoff run. Detroit is 12-3 their last 15 games at home and won 9 of those by a touchdown or more. The Rams have a lot of talent on both sides and the offense will be good but the Lions have good matchups on both sides of the line, they got better at corner adding Carlton Davis and Terrion Armstead from Alabama, and this is a big home game for a team with a lot of excitement around them.
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Jaguars at Dolphins: The Dolphins are dealing with key injuries on the offensive and defensive lines and Jalen Ramsey is questionable to play with a hamstring injury. The Jaguars upgraded their offensive line and added to an already good passing game after drafting Brian Thomas Jr in the 1st round out of LSU who led the country in touchdowns last year. The Dolphins, however, are tough to bet against at home particularly in September when it’s hot in Miami. The Dolphins have a strong home record SU and ATS with Tua and Mike McDaniel, the Jaguars are definitely healthier and in position for a good start to this season with the talent on both sides and their urgency after blowing a chance at the playoffs last season.
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Panthers at Saints: The Saints are the 2nd worst ATS team in the NFL the last 2 seasons and went 5-16-1 ATS from September through the end of November the last 2 seasons. Derek Carr is 20-36-2 ATS as a favorite in his career. The Saints beat writers are concerned about the Saints offensive line and Michael Thomas is no longer with the team. The Saints haven’t had any offensive success under Dennis Allen and Alvin Kamara put his house on sale this week if that adds to anything. The Panthers are trying to rebound from an awful season and Dave Canales should really improve the offense after helping Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith revive their careers. Bryce Young still has a lot of talent and Diontae Johnson and Chuba Hubbard should help move the ball. Division underdogs are 34-15-2 ATS in Week 1 since 2015. Carolina is young, it’s their first game together, but if betting this game it’s hard to make a case for New Orleans.
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Steelers at Falcons: Russell Wilson is listed as questionable after reaggravating his calf injury so Justin Fields has a chance to start. The Steelers talent on defense is really good and it could be their most talent on that side of the ball since their Super Bowl run. TJ Watt + Cam Heyward + Minkah Fitzpatrick + Elandon Roberts + Patrick Queen + Joey Porter Jr + Nick Herbig + Donte Jackson + Larry Ogunjobi. Their offense will be the question. They have a better OC with Arthur Smith there instead of Matt Canada. Arthur Smith knows the Falcons well from coaching their last year. Mike Tomlin is 14-5-1 ATS as a single digit underdog of 3+ points since 2020. The Falcons roster is really good though and defensive line could win their matchups vs the Steelers Oline with this offense playing in Arthur Smith’s system for the first time. Two new offenses going against very good defenses….could be a good 1st half bet on Under 20.5
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Pats at Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase is being listed as questionable with “illness”. They’re closer to a deal but nothing signed yet. Tee Higgins didn’t practice Friday and he’s out. Joe Burrow said this is the best he’s felt at camp probably in his whole career but unfortunately the WR room isn’t 100% right now. Not a game to lay 8-8.5 points in Week 1. The Patriots will be starting Jacoby Brissett at QB and Drake Maye will have to wait a bit for his debut.
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Texans at Colts: two good teams and both are good on both sides of the ball. The Texans are more proven and the addition of Stefon Diggs to this offense should be great. The Colts have a lot of talent on both sides. Anthony Richardson’s accuracy will be under a microscope until he proves himself in the NFL. His accuracy in a big spot vs a good Texans defense could be the difference in this game. Tough to get in front of either team with this line, the Texans and CJ Stroud are more proven though.
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Cardinals at Bills: The Bills since firing Ken Dorsey went to a run heavy offense and in Week 1 with Kyler Murray on the other side the Bills might want to run the ball a lot to keep Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr on the sidelines as much as they can. There has also been a concerted effort in Buffalo to get Josh Allen’s turnovers down so a run heavy gameplan just makes sense which spoils the excitement for an Over here. An Over has potential on paper but the gamescript might make the clock move fast. The Cardinals will test the Bills secondary which has new faces from their playoff runs and is unproven together. The Cardinals offense should move the ball and Marvin Harrison could have a big game. Arizona’s defense already had questions and had two big injuries late in camp so it’s hard to trust their defense too much.
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Titans at Bears: the thought of fading the #1 overall QB with the 0-8-1 trend the last 15 years sounds nice, but also have to keep in mind that the Bears aren’t a true #1 overall pick roster and they traded up to get that pick. They’re better on defense and offensively than most teams who pick #1 and the Titans do have a lot of talent but it’s also their first game together as a new team with a new head coach. This could be a really entertaining game with two good offenses and some really good wide receivers on both sides – Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd, Keenan Allen and DJ Moore.
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Raiders at Chargers: The Chargers should be a good running team and they have the better quarterback in this game by a lot. Who is the Chargers go to guy in the redzone though? That would be the question to consider if you’re going to lay 3. Gardner Minshew and the Raiders offense could struggle this year. This is a big game in Los Angeles for Jim Harbaugh to win over a fanbase and start the season with a win. The Raiders defense will be good and this should be a hard fought game on both sides, but Justin Herbert making a big play could be the difference in this game.
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Vikings at Giants: The Vikings had a good passing game last year even when Kirk Cousins went down, so there’s a chance Sam Darnold could have a good year in this offense. The Giants defense and pass rush has a lot of talent with Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux outside and Dexter Lawrence in the middle. Covering Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison is going to be a challenge and the Giants secondary depth is going to get tested. The Giants have speed outside on offense with Malik Nabers and Jalen Hyatt, but the offensive line and Daniel Jones have to show something before you can feel comfortable backing this team. There is talent for the Giants but they’ve shown a lot of reasons the last few years to not feel confident in them.