A lot of trends are meaningless, especially if there’s been a lot of change to the players and coaches associated with them. But when a team has patterns and the coaching staff and core group of players have been together for a while, some trends definitely have value and are worth knowing. This is a list of trends that fit the bill of teams that have been together for a while plus a few franchises going in a clear downward direction and the numbers have been bad no matter who is coaching or on the roster.
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The Dolphins are 9-3 ATS in division games under Mike McDaniel, 10-3 ATS when you include the playoffs. They’re 23-11 ATS at home overall since Tua got drafted in 2020 and Tua has a 38:14 touchdown:interception ratio at home the last 3 seasons
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The Chiefs are 30-6 SU vs the AFC West since 2018 when Patrick Mahomes became the starter and Kansas City is 12-5 ATS off a loss the last 5 seasons
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Sean McVay and the Rams are 17-9 ATS off a loss the last 5 seasons
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The Lions are 12-5 ATS at home the last 2 seasons, covering by just under a touchdown per game 6.1 ppg and winning games by 7.9 ppg. The Lions went 24-10 ATS overall the last 2 seasons (#1 in the NFL)
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The Packers are 13-4 ATS in September since 2019 when Matt LeFleur became the head coach, 3-1 ATS last season when Jordan Love became the starter. LeFleur is 13-3 ATS as an underdog of 3 to 9 points during the regular season during the same time
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The Patriots are 4-12 ATS in Foxborough the last 2 seasons
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Mike Tomlin and the Steelers are 14-5-1 ATS as a dog of 3 to 9 points since 2020 and 16-9 ATS in division games during the same time
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The Vikings are 6-12 ATS at home under Kevin O’Connell and 4-8 ATS in the division
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The Super Bowl loser is 4-19-1 ATS in Week 1 since 2000
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The Cowboys are 16-2 SU at home the last 2 seasons with a 13.8 ppg margin of victory but they’re just 3-7 ATS as underdogs the last 2 seasons
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The Giants are 19-10-1 ATS as underdogs under Brian Daboll
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The Browns are 12-5 ATS at home the last 2 seasons
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The Saints are 1-7 ATS as a road favorite the last 2 seasons under Dennis Allen, 6-10 ATS at home the last 2 seasons overall and were the 2nd worst ATS team overall the last 2 seasons at 13-21 ATS
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