Taking a look at a few teams and players with value to bet on early Chargers: What felt like a decade of Brandon Staley’s horrendous coaching is finally gone. The amount of times that guy went for it on 4th down and didn’t convert or put the Chargers in position to blow leads and lose 1 score games was insane. He blew a 27-0 lead in the playoffs to the Jaguars 2 years ago and lost and then last season 8 of the Chargers 12 losses were 1 score games. Simply just not a good NFL head coach and is better as a coordinator. Now Jim Harbaugh comes in and with him, Greg Roman at OC, and Harbaugh’s DC from Michigan the coaching staff improves immediately. Harbaugh improved the 49ers by 7 wins in his first year and took a quarterback to the Super Bowl who was out of the league a few years later. The Chargers did lose some big skill position players with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler leaving but added 2 quality RBs in Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins. Gus Edwards averaged 5+ yards per carry in 4 of his 5 seasons in the NFL and averages 140 carries per 1 fumble for his career. Dobbins averaged 5.7 ypc and 6 ypc in 2 of his 3 seasons in the league. They won’t have an explosive #1 WR like they’re used to but they have a decent core of Josh Palmer, DJ Chark and Georgia WR Ladd McConkey who ran a 4.39 40 and good tight end options in Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst. It will be a run heavy, high percentage Harbaugh offense behind a pretty good offensive line and the defense still has Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Derwin James, Asante Samuel Jr, Denzel Perryman and added Bud Dupree. Herbert was dealing with plantar fasciitis earlier in camp so that is a risk for this season but with his quarterback play + good coaching + talent on defense the floor on this team is high and the upside is much better than the last few seasons. This is the 2nd best team in the AFC West and they have a very generous road schedule with games at Carolina, Arizona, and New England and those 3 teams having a combined 10-41 record last season. The Chargers are +112 to make the playoffs and should be right there for a wild card spot.
Jets: Aside from getting Aaron Rodgers back or any roster upgrades that they made (which they did, especially on the O-line) it’s so much better for this team that they’re not dealing with all the Super Bowl hype and Hard Knocks distractions that went on last season. The Super Bowl expectations and talk all last summer with Rodgers fresh on the roster were nonstop and annoying and no team wants to deal with that level of expectations and scrutiny day in and day out for 7-8 months straight. Now that they’re coming off a bad season with terrible luck and there’s a group of people who do not believe in Robert Saleh or that Rodgers can play well at his age (or they just don’t like him and want to see him fail), the Jets have a lot more of the “same old Jets” perception from the public than they did last year, which bodes well for them. The offensive line added Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses who spent the last 2 years with the Ravens, and drafted Penn State tackle Olu Fashanu in the 1st round. Saleh is very high on the offensive line and this should be the Jets best offensive line in years. Mike Williams joins Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard to give Rodgers three really good wide receivers and some great redzone targets. Breece Hall averaged 4.5 yards/carry last season with Zach Wilson under center and 5.8 yards/carry in his first season and he’ll benefit a ton with Rodgers at quarterback. They have the best defense in the division and one of the best in the NFL. A very generous schedule with non-division games vs the Broncos, at the Cardinals, at the Titans, vs the Rams at home in late December in the cold, and then get 2 games vs the Patriots in the division who are currently -2200 if you want to bet them to not make the playoffs that’s how bad they’ll be. In a year where the Bills are coming off a very emotional playoff loss and had their Super Bowl expectations busted and could take a step back, the door is open for either the Jets or the Dolphins to win this division. +180 for the Jets to win the AFC East and +1200 for the Jets to win the AFC are two tickets that should look very good late in the year.
Jaguars: This team was rolling last year sitting at 8-3 before Trevor Lawrence had a high ankle sprain and they lost a tough Monday night game. The injuries started piling up all over the roster and the wheels started falling off and they lost 5 of their last 6 games and finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs after Tennessee eliminated them in Week 18. Once the Texans got hot and CJ Stroud took them to the playoffs the Jaguars kind of got forgotten about and that’s how it feels this offseason where people aren’t talking about them much and aren’t expecting a lot out of them. The offensive line was a problem last year. They added Mitch Morse at Center, get Cam Robinson at left tackle back who missed 8 games last season, get a full season of Ezra Cleveland who they added midseason last year, Scherff is still there, and they drafted Javon Foster. At WR they drafted Brian Thomas Jr from LSU in the 1st round who led the country with 17 touchdowns and is 6’5 with a 4.33 40. Christian Kirk dealt with a hamstring injury in the 2nd half of last season and Trevor Lawrence’s numbers were way better with him healthy. A coaching staff that fired the DC and 7 assistants should only improve after the defense underperformed and gave up 28+ points in a number of games. Ronald Darby joins the secondary and Tyson Campbell is back after dealing with a hamstring injury last season and not playing well. This team wasn’t far off last year and were in position for a high seed in the playoffs before a bunch of injuries. The Texans are still the team to beat in the division but Jacksonville +130 to make the playoffs is probably a good ticket.
Jayden Daniels is going to have some great games for the Commanders and should be circled for a lot of prop bet Overs. The defense still has holes in the secondary so let’s not even talk about their team as a whole or their record, let’s just focus on Jayden Daniels here. The Commanders added Austin Ekeler in the backfield next to Brian Robinson and with Terry McLaurin on the outside and Zach Ertz in the middle this offense is going to be tough to defend. Jayden Daniels at LSU last year had 40 touchdowns to 4 interceptions…in the SEC. 72% completions and 11.7 yards per attempt and added 1134 rushing yards for 8.4 yards per carry and 10 rushing touchdowns. He’s a stud and he looked great in the preseason. Brian Robinson, who should know high level quarterback play from Alabama, said “I prayed on that pick” when being asked about Washington drafting Daniels at #2. Jayden Daniels pass yard Overs, pass completion Overs, and rush yard Overs should be circled every week early in the season. The Commanders opening O/U in the first 8 games are low, which means the market as a whole isn’t high on this offense yet. 7 of their first 8 O/Us opened below 47: 41.5, 42.5, 48 in Cincy, 45 in Arizona (OVER!) , 43.5, 46.5, 42, and 44.5. All the Caleb Williams love is taking attention away from the fact that Jayden Daniels is one of the most exciting quarterbacks to come out of college in years. His season player props: Over 16.5 touchdowns, Over pass yards anywhere from 3025.5-3150.5, and rush yards Over 525.5-550.5. About to go look for the Connor McGregor gif after seeing some of these totals because Sign.me.up.
Another quarterback who should be circled for player prop Overs and dominated college last year is Bo Nix. Again, not going to talk about the Broncos as a whole but he’s an upgrade over Russell Wilson right away. 45 touchdowns to 3 interceptions at Oregon last year completing 77% of passes (granted Pac 12 defenses suck but still ridiculous numbers) and his arm talent and maturity are definitely there and he can also make plays with his legs. He moved the ball up and down the field last night on the Packers with a lot of zip on his passes and made plays on the fly. Sean Payton is aggressive when he has a quarterback he trusts and it looks and sounds like he trusts Bo Nix a lot already. Over pass yards, Over pass completions, and Over pass touchdowns should be on the radar every week early in the season.